Climate Variability and Change in the Southwest

Part II: Symposium

Chapter 4

Plenary Presentations

Opening Speakers

Michael Cusanovich, Vice President for Research at The University of Arizona, welcomed the participants and indicated that the symposium reflected the strong interest the University has in global change research, with many faculty serving on key international and federal advisory panels. He also stated that the UA's set of global change activities is but one example of the University's long tradition of and commitment to interdisciplinary environmental research.

John Garamendi, Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior provided the keynote address. Garamendi spoke about the need for scientists to communicate their research findings about climate change to the public and reminded the audience that it doesn't have the luxury of waiting. He quoted President Clinton, indicating that:

Garamendi stressed that leadership from the scientific community is critical to move U.S. society-which has four percent of the world's population but is responsible for 20 percent of CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel burning-to take necessary action.

He also highlighted some of the potential impacts in the Southwest from climate change, including shifting sand dunes in the Four Corners region from a decrease in vegetation, an increase in vector-borne diseases, and an increase in severe (extreme) weather events. With regard to the (then upcoming) December 1997 Kyoto Summit, Garamendi asserted that the U.S. has seven general directives to follow:

1. setting binding emission standards for developing countries;
2. achieving flexibility to find cost-effective solutions;
3. ensuring that developing countries participate in emissions reductions;
4. preparing a balanced plan of action between environmental concerns and economic development;
5. notwithstanding the previous directive, preserving the current economic growth;
6. finding the flexibility to use market solutions rather than regulations to solve environmental problems; and
7. using science and technology to provide solutions.

Michael Hall, Director of the Office of Global Programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), stressed the need for an ongoing dialogue among scientists, the public, and bureaucrats about climate-change impacts. He suggested that while there should be a national response to global climate change, there also should be a shift from a global to a regional or local focus in terms of research to study the impacts of climate change.

Wilson Orr, Director of Advanced Technology Systems for the City of Scottsdale, AZ (presently Director of the Global Change and Sustainability Program at Prescott College), echoed the need to think about the occurrence of global change in local places and of the need for communication between scientists and the public.

Topical Presentations

Following these opening remarks, seven plenary speakers were charged with answering several key questions. These presentations are summarized in subsequent chapters.

• Diana Liverman, Director, Latin American Area Center and Associate Professor of Geography, The University of Arizona:
  
  How does climate affect human activity and the economy of the Southwest?
  
  Liverman's presentation forms the basis for Chapter 5, "Trends and Issues in the Southwest."
• Thomas Swetnam, Associate Professor, Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona:
  
  How unusual is the Southwest's climate this century compared with that in the past?
• Robert Quayle, Deputy Director, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC:
  
  What is the evidence that climate is changing? What do we know about recent climate trends in the Southwest?
• Daniel Cayan, Director, El Niño Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA:
  
  How does El Niño affect the climate of the Southwest?
• Soroosh Sorooshian, Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources, The University of Arizona:
  
  How does climate affect surface water and groundwater supply in the Southwest?
  
  The presentations by Swetnam, Quayle, Cayan, and Sorooshian provide the basis for material in Chapter 6, "Climate Patterns and Trends in the Southwest."
• Robert Dickinson, Regents Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Hydrology and Water Resources, and Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona:
  
  What do we know about the likely climate of the future?
• Linda Mearns, Scientist, Environmental and Social Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO:
  
  What are the likely future impacts of climate variations and changes on society, the economy, and the environment?
  
  The presentations by Dickinson and Mearns provide core material for Chapter 7, "Future Climate of the Southwest."